One of
the few things that all sports and life generally have in common is the need to
separate the good from the bad, the better from the good and the best from the
better. This separation is the back bone on most arguments at bars, in homes
etc. Its always about who is better, richer, more beautiful, stronger than the
other. In the beautiful, the story is the same if anything it’s of a higher
degree because of the added passion of the game.
Its that
time again when the men are separated from the boys talking about the English
Premier leagues PFA player of the year awards, with Robin Van Persie probably
on course to win it for a second straight year. The PFA is voted for in early
spring with results announced in April. The top three contenders in my book are
Robin Van Persie, Luis Suarez, and Gareth Bale.
Bale and
Suarez have been making a late run for the award by scoring 14 goals in 14
matches, but has their surge come too late to head off the challenge of Van
Persie?
It
doesn't help that the Dutchman has hit a goal drought of late. He was the early front-runner in January, with Suarez a close contender. The voting forms
went out in February, however.
At that time, Van Persie was the favourite to win, as he was
top scorer in the Premier League and saved United on countless occasions.
With
voting closing, however, Suarez is the top scorer with Bale catching up fast.
The Tottenham man won the award in 2011, but Suarez has never won it.
We must
remember that it is fellow players and retired players who are voting. Is
Suarez less popular among his opponents? They are the ones who get to see him
at close quarters.
No doubt
all his team-mates at Liverpool will support him, but will his previous
notoriety, especially for diving, count against him at the death?
If that
is the case, it could still come down to a fight between Bale and Van Persie,
the last two winners.
Why Robin Van Persie should win
OK, so he
has fallen back in the goal-scoring stakes, but that isn't the only likely
criterion. Players' voting will surely look at the all-round person, otherwise
defenders would never win the award.
In fact,
only one defender, John Terry, has won it in the last 18 years; and only two
wingers and two midfield players.
So we're
back to Van Persie or Suarez probably.
As things
stand right now, Suarez has 29 goals (including 22 in the EPL) and 10 assists
in the 39 games he has played this season.
Van
Persie has 23 goals (including 19 in the EPL) in 33 matches. His combined
statistics in the Premier League are 27 goals and assists, which happens to be
exactly the same number as Suarez.
So the
reasoning behind Van Persie will come down to his all-round play.
If we can
conclude that the final choice would come down between the two players, then
Van Persie beats Suarez on most counts.
For
starters, Van Persie is far better at defending. He wins 48 per cent of ground
and 45 per cent of aerial duels, compared to Suarez's 38 and 27, respectively.
Their tackle completion rates are matched at around 77/78 per cent.
(For
these and all the following statistics, we are using the EPL Index for season
2012/13).
Taking
possession, Suarez loses it twice as often as Van Persie.
Looking
at passing and creativity, Van Persie's open play completion rate is the better
at 80 over 77 per cent. He may have far less dribbles than Suarez, but he is
twice as effective at 73 per cent. He also creates a clear-cut chance every 185
minutes as opposed to 227 minutes.
Of
course, when we come to goal-scoring, Suarez has been much more effective
recently, especially with the arrival of first Sturridge and then Coutinho in
support.
Nevertheless,
Van Persie's shooting accuracy and chance conversion rate are 54 and 23 per
cent, respectively, compared to the Liverpool man's 47 and 19 per cent.
And this
is where we begin to get an insight into why Van Persie might just edge the
vote.
Statistics
are all very well and can be selected or manipulated to produce the picture you
want. But what we have here are two very different players in different
contexts.
Luis
Suarez has been, for most of the season, to all intents and purposes,
Liverpool's only striker. So he must have got more chances and therefore more
goals. Indeed, last season he was more recognisable for his woeful conversion
rate.
Not only
is Van Persie invariably one of two strikers on the pitch, and even though he
is Sir Alex's No. 1 choice, there are four in total at United.
And apart
from the number of times Van Persie has rescued his team, he has had to adapt
to a completely new team and playing colleagues.
Remember,
he also takes half the corners and many of the free kicks. The clue is in the
number of crosses. He has 135 compared to 47 for Suarez. This does, of course,
also reduce his opportunities to score because he cannot be on both ends of a
corner.
In fact,
it could be contended that Van Persie is more of a team player. He certainly
drifts out to the wing far more than Suarez, who is mainly direct and through
the middle.
It is to
the latter's credit that he has stood up to the demands placed on him by virtue
of being the player whom the team most relies on for creativity and
goal-scoring.
Nevertheless,
when it comes down to the nitty-gritty of voting, Suarez's past may come
back to bite him.
While the
Evra incident and its aftermath were very much an issue between the two clubs,
they created a great deal of adverse publicity. Added to Suarez's previous
proclivity for diving, he may still have some reputation recovery to achieve
before he is a hot candidate.
He
deserves every credit for how he has carried the Liverpool team through the
difficult last two seasons and has undoubtedly improved since last year.
But
surely Van Persie's goal touch will return. He is highly rated by his fellow
professionals and may just pip 2011 winner Gareth Bale to the title, making him
one of the very few to win it two years running.
At the
end of February, Van Persie was the likely winner in what now looks like being
the closest contest in years. If most of the votes were cast by then, he should
just nick it.
With Bale now injured, Van Persie yet to find his shooting boots, and Suarez ... well being Suarez, the race could go either way but these three have been the best players this season in the premier league without any doubt but who is the best???? Well PFA would decide...
Till next time Stay true 2 soccer...
